HOURP Budget Dashboard v5

FIFA World Cup 2026 BULLISH

Location: NRG Stadium (property is ADJACENT)

Matches: 7 games - Jun 14, 17, 20, 23, 26, 29, Jul 4

Impact: 500K+ visitors, $1.5B economic impact to Houston

Strategy: Premium rates $175-200, minimum stays 2-3 nights

Houston Rodeo 2026 BULLISH

Dates: March 2-22 (21 days - longest ever)

Attendance: 2.5M+ visitors over 21 days

Impact: Largest annual revenue opportunity for NRG area

Strategy: $165-180 transient, $150-165 groups

Medical Contracts STRUCTURAL

CTP/MD Anderson: Contracted at $104-109/night

Volume: ~7,000 room nights (~30% of mix)

Impact: Stable base, but limits ADR upside

Reality: Good business - provides floor in soft periods

Feld Entertainment HEADWIND

Events: Supercross (789rn @ $85), Disney on Ice (525rn @ $79)

Impact: Low-rate committed business drags ADR by ~$3-4

Strategy: Honor commitments, offset with premium transient

2025 Actual Metrics (TTM from STR)

Metric	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	TTM Total
Actual Revenue	$378K	$467K	$955K	$534K	$536K	$612K	$421K	$488K	$442K	$510K	$460K	$291K	$6.09M
My Property Occ	53.4%	58.3%	73.1%	65.1%	61.3%	63.7%	61.1%	76.6%	69.4%	72.1%	67.9%	43.5%	63.8%
MPI	97.5	78.5	89.2	94.8	89.3	89.7	111.9	141.0	129.8	111.5	115.3	88.7	101.5
My Property ADR	$120	$151	$222	$144	$148	$169	$117	$108	$112	$120	$119	$114	$137
ARI	95.9	101.4	104.8	102.9	99.3	96.3	92.4	86.0	87.7	87.9	81.5	91.7	94.2
RGI	93.5	79.6	93.5	97.6	88.7	86.4	103.4	121.3	113.8	98.0	94.0	81.3	95.9

2026 GM Property Budget

Metric	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
GM Budget Revenue	$390K	$510K	$974K	$566K	$552K	$841K	$463K	$503K	$459K	$536K	$483K	$288K	$6.57M
Market Growth	3.0%	9.0%	2.0%	6.0%	3.0%	37.0%	10.0%	3.0%	4.0%	5.0%	5.0%	-1.0%	7.2%
Occ Adjustment	5.0%	10.0%	5.0%	3.0%	0.0%	15.0%	8.0%	-5.0%	-3.0%	2.0%	3.0%	-5.0%	3.2%
Projected Occ	56.1%	64.1%	76.8%	67.1%	61.3%	73.3%	66.0%	72.8%	67.4%	73.5%	69.9%	41.3%	65.8%
ADR Adjustment	5.0%	5.0%	5.0%	3.0%	3.0%	20.0%	5.0%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%	0.0%	4.8%
Projected ADR	$126	$159	$233	$148	$152	$203	$123	$111	$115	$124	$122	$114	$143
Implied RGI	$6.57M / $67,949 = RGI 96.7 (~97)

GM Budget Assessment: At $6.57M, GM Budget implies RGI ~97 - only 3 points below Fair Share. Gap to close: $220K. This is achievable with targeted improvements in key months.

💜 2026 Marriott SMART Forecast

Metric	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
SMART Revenue	$365K	$450K	$920K	$520K	$510K	$780K	$430K	$470K	$425K	$490K	$440K	$280K	$6.08M
vs GM Budget	-$25K	-$60K	-$54K	-$46K	-$42K	-$61K	-$33K	-$33K	-$34K	-$46K	-$43K	-$8K	-$490K

💜 SMART Insight: Marriott's SMART forecasts $6.08M - significantly below GM Budget ($6.57M). This is a conservative baseline. GM Budget assumptions are more aggressive but achievable with execution.

✅ 2026 Approved Budget

Metric	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
Approved Revenue	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
vs GM Budget	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Approved RGI	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Approved Budget: Awaiting final approved numbers from ownership. This section will be updated once budget is finalized.

2026 Recommended Budget (Dash)

RGI 100 = $6.79M. Using same 7% market growth as GM. Yellow = changes to GM's orange cells to close the $220K gap.

Metric	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
Fair Share Revenue	$405K	$540K	$1,000K	$566K	$575K	$870K	$475K	$503K	$459K	$545K	$500K	$355K	$6.79M
Market Growth	3.0%	9.0%	4.0%	6.0%	5.0%	40.0%	12.0%	3.0%	4.0%	5.0%	5.0%	2.0%	8.1%
Occ Adjustment	8.0%	16.0%	8.0%	3.0%	5.0%	18.0%	10.0%	-5.0%	-3.0%	4.0%	5.0%	15.0%	5.3%
Fair Share Occ	57.7%	67.6%	79.0%	67.1%	64.4%	75.2%	67.2%	72.8%	67.4%	75.0%	71.3%	50.0%	66.2%
ADR Adjustment	5.0%	5.0%	5.0%	3.0%	5.0%	22.0%	7.0%	3.0%	3.0%	5.0%	5.0%	8.0%	6.3%
Fair Share ADR	$126	$159	$233	$148	$155	$206	$125	$111	$115	$126	$125	$123	$146
Fair Share RGI	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
vs GM Budget	+$15K	+$30K	+$26K	$0	+$23K	+$29K	+$12K	$0	$0	+$9K	+$17K	+$67K	+$220K

How to Close the $220K Gap (Yellow Cells):
Jan: Occ 5% → 8% (+$15K) - Push Supercross weekend harder
Feb: Occ 10% → 16% (+$30K) - BBQ Cookoff, comp set hit 74% occ in 2025
Mar: Market 2% → 4%, Occ 5% → 8% (+$26K) - 21-day Rodeo, aim for 79% occ
May: Market 3% → 5%, Occ 0% → 5%, ADR 3% → 5% (+$23K) - OTC recovery
Jun: Market 37% → 40%, Occ 15% → 18%, ADR 20% → 22% (+$29K) - FIFA
Jul: Market 10% → 12%, Occ 8% → 10%, ADR 5% → 7% (+$12K) - FIFA Jul 4
Oct-Nov: Occ/ADR slight bumps (+$26K) - NFL + Nutcracker
Dec: Market -1% → 2%, Occ -5% → 15%, ADR 0% → 8% (+$67K) - Proactive group sales!

December is 30% of the Gap ($67K of $220K):
2025: RGI 81.3 (worst month), Occ 43.5%, $291K revenue
Fair Share: Occ 50% (+6.5 pts), ADR $123 (+$9), $355K revenue
Action: Start group prospecting NOW for holiday parties, medical conferences, sports families.

Revenue Comparison: 2025 Actual vs GM Budget vs Fair Share

Summary: GM Budget vs Fair Share

Scenario	Revenue	vs 2025	Occ%	ADR	RGI	Gap to FS
2025 Actual	$6.09M	-	63.8%	$137	95.9	-$700K
SMART Forecast	$5.07M	-17%	~58%	~$130	~75	-$1.72M
GM Budget	$6.57M	+8%	65.8%	$143	~97	-$220K
Fair Share (RGI=100)	$6.79M	+11%	66.2%	$146	100	$0

Bottom Line: GM Budget is solid at $6.57M (RGI ~97). Fair Share is $6.79M (RGI 100). The $220K gap is achievable with execution improvements in Feb, Mar, May, Jun, Jul, and especially December.

2025 STR Performance Deep Dive

Month	My Occ%	Comp Occ%	MPI	My ADR	Comp ADR	ARI	My RevPAR	Comp RevPAR	RGI	Rank
Jan	53.4%	54.8%	97.5	$120	$125	95.9	$64	$69	93.5	#4/6
Feb	58.3%	74.3%	78.5	$151	$149	101.4	$88	$110	79.6	#5/6
Mar	73.1%	82.0%	89.2	$222	$212	104.8	$162	$173	93.5	#2/6
Apr	65.1%	68.6%	94.8	$144	$140	102.9	$94	$96	97.6	#5/6
May	61.3%	68.7%	89.3	$148	$149	99.3	$91	$103	88.7	#5/6
Jun	63.7%	71.0%	89.7	$169	$175	96.3	$107	$124	86.4	#6/6
Jul	61.1%	54.6%	111.9	$117	$127	92.4	$71	$69	103.4	#4/6
Aug	76.6%	54.4%	141.0	$108	$126	86.0	$83	$68	121.3	#3/6
Sep	69.4%	53.4%	129.8	$112	$127	87.7	$77	$68	113.8	#3/6
Oct	72.1%	64.6%	111.5	$120	$137	87.9	$87	$88	98.0	#4/6
Nov	67.9%	58.9%	115.3	$119	$146	81.5	$81	$86	94.0	#5/6
Dec	43.5%	49.0%	88.7	$114	$124	91.7	$49	$61	81.3	#5/6
TTM	63.8%	62.8%	101.5	$137	$148	94.2	$88	$93	95.9	#4-5

Strength: Property WINS on occupancy (MPI 101.5) - especially Jul-Sep where MPI ranges 111-141. Medical contracts provide consistent base demand.

Weakness: Property LOSES on rate (ARI 94.2) - $11 below comp set ADR. Partly structural from medical contracts and Feld Entertainment.

Biggest 2026 Opportunities (Red Rows Above):
February: RGI 79.6 (worst month!) - comp set at 74% occ, we're at 58%. Push BBQ Cookoff!
June: RGI 86.4 (#6/6 rank) - FIFA will flip this completely.
December: RGI 81.3 - proactive group sales needed for holiday period.

2025 Daily STR Analysis - Missed Revenue Opportunities

Est. Missed Revenue

~$165K

From identifiable events

Worst Event

BBQ Cookoff

Feb 19-25 | RGI 56-78

Weekday Gap

-9 pts RGI

Sun-Thu vs Fri-Sat

Best Days 2025

RGI 180

Aug 1-2 | Medical surge

Major Missed Events (2025)

Event	Dates	Our RGI	Comp Occ	Our Occ	Gap	Est. Miss	2026 Action
BBQ Cookoff	Feb 19-25	56-78	74%	58%	-16 pts	~$35K	Start selling Dec 2025!
Early Rodeo (Wk1)	Mar 2-9	57-65	82%	73%	-9 pts	~$40K	Push Wk1 rates earlier
Post-OTC Collapse	May 9-14	70-85	69%	55%	-14 pts	~$25K	Extend OTC groups
June 27 Mystery	Jun 27	34.8	87%	51%	-36 pts	~$15K	Research event - Major miss!
Weekday Drag (YTD)	All Sun-Thu	89-93	-	-	ARI 91%	~$50K+	Medical rate hold strategy
TOTAL IDENTIFIED	-	-	-	-	-	~$165K	-

February BBQ Cookoff Disaster: Feb 19-25, 2025 saw our RGI plunge to 56-78 while the comp set hit 74% occupancy. We were at just 58%. This is a known high-demand event that we underperformed. For 2026: Start selling rooms in December!

Day of Week Performance Pattern

Day	Avg RGI	Avg MPI	Avg ARI	Pattern	Insight
Friday	100-102	105+	95	WIN	Strong leisure/event demand
Saturday	100-102	108+	93	WIN	Peak leisure performance
Sunday	89-93	97	93	LOSE	Checkout day weakness
Monday	89-93	98	92	LOSE	Midweek corporate gap
Tuesday	89-93	99	91	LOSE	Lowest ARI day
Wednesday	89-93	101	90	LOSE	Good occ, poor rate
Thursday	93-95	103	91	NEUTRAL	Pre-weekend pickup

Structural Pattern: We consistently WIN Fri-Sat (RGI 100-102) on occupancy strength (MPI 105-108), but LOSE Sun-Thu (RGI 89-93) on rate weakness (ARI 90-92%). Medical contracts at $104-109 drag midweek ADR.

Top 10 Best RGI Days (2025)

Date	Day	RGI	MPI	ARI	Comp ADR	Event/Notes
Aug 1	Fri	180.0	186	97	$127	Medical surge + weekend
Aug 2	Sat	176.2	179	98	$131	Medical surge continues
Sep 5	Fri	167.1	171	98	$132	Labor Day weekend
Mar 14	Fri	162.8	119	137	$205	Rodeo peak - ADR win!
Mar 15	Sat	158.3	116	136	$208	Rodeo weekend
Oct 11	Sat	155.4	167	93	$145	NFL + fall demand
Aug 8	Fri	152.1	163	93	$124	Summer medical
Sep 6	Sat	148.9	158	94	$129	Labor Day weekend
Nov 8	Sat	146.2	161	91	$152	Nutcracker Market
Aug 9	Sat	144.8	159	91	$128	Summer medical

Best Days Pattern: 8 of top 10 days are Fri/Sat. Medical Center drives Jul-Sep strength (MPI 160-180+). March Rodeo shows we CAN win on rate (ARI 136-137) when demand is strong enough.

Bottom 10 Worst RGI Days (2025)

Date	Day	RGI	MPI	ARI	Comp ADR	What Happened
Jun 27	Fri	34.8	59	59	$282	MYSTERY - Comp ADR $282! What event?
Dec 25	Thu	42.1	67	63	$118	Christmas Day
Dec 24	Wed	45.3	69	66	$115	Christmas Eve
Feb 13	Thu	48.2	59	82	$167	Valentine's lead-up - market hot (79% occ)
Dec 26	Fri	51.4	71	72	$112	Post-Christmas
Feb 20	Thu	55.9	63	89	$172	BBQ Cookoff week
Jan 1	Wed	57.8	74	78	$128	New Year's Day
Mar 3	Mon	58.1	62	94	$213	Rodeo Wk1 - slow start
Dec 31	Tue	59.2	76	78	$121	New Year's Eve
Feb 19	Wed	60.3	68	89	$168	BBQ Cookoff start

June 27 Deep Dive Needed: Comp set ADR was $282 (vs our $128) with 87% occupancy. We had just 51% occ. This was a MAJOR event we completely missed. Research what happened and plan for 2026!

Days Where Market Was Hot, We Missed

Comp set occupancy >70% but our MPI <80 = room for improvement

Date	Comp Occ	Our Occ	MPI	Comp ADR	Our ADR	RGI	Opportunity
Jun 27	87%	51%	59	$282	$128	35	$12K single day!
Feb 13	79%	47%	59	$167	$137	48	Valentine's lead
Feb 20	74%	47%	63	$172	$153	56	BBQ Cookoff
Feb 21	76%	52%	68	$178	$159	61	BBQ Cookoff
Mar 3	79%	49%	62	$213	$200	58	Rodeo Wk1 start
Mar 4	82%	54%	66	$218	$205	62	Rodeo Wk1

2026 Action Items from Daily Analysis

URGENT February Strategy

BBQ Cookoff (Feb 26-28, 2026):

- Start group prospecting by December 2025

- Target 74% occ to match comp set (vs 58% in 2025)

- Push transient rates to $165+ (comp was $172)

Potential recovery: $35K

PRIORITY March Rodeo Week 1

Rodeo opens Mar 2, 2026:

- 2025 Week 1 was weakest (RGI 57-65)

- By Week 2-3, we hit RGI 100+

- Push Wk1 pricing earlier, sell harder

Potential recovery: $40K

INVESTIGATE June 27 Event

Mystery high-demand day:

- Comp ADR was $282 (highest of year)

- Comp Occ was 87%

- We had 51% occ at $128 ADR

Action: Research what event this was!

STRENGTH Weekend Strategy

Continue winning Fri-Sat:

- RGI 100-102 on weekends

- MPI 105-108 shows demand capture

- Protect weekend rates during FIFA

Don't discount weekends for groups!

STRUCTURAL Midweek Rate

ARI ceiling from medical contracts:

- Sun-Thu ARI averages 90-92%

- CTP/MD Anderson at $104-109

- Accept this as floor business

Focus: Don't sacrifice for lower-rate groups

OPPORTUNITY December Push

Weakest month (RGI 81.3):

- Holiday period needs group focus

- Target corporate holiday parties

- Sports families for bowl games

Potential recovery: $67K (30% of gap!)

2026 Booked Group Business

Group	Dates	Room Nights	Rate	Revenue	Impact
Supercross (Feld)	January	789	$85	$67K	Drags ADR by ~$3
Disney on Ice (Feld)	Mar 29 - Apr 5	525	$79	$41K	Lowest rate group
Houston First	Apr 27 - May 3	476	$203	$97K	Premium rate!
Mecum Auction	Apr 5-13	690	$179	$124K	Strong rate
Clash of Clubs	Apr 27 - May 3	476	$203	$97K	Premium rate!
Konami Digital	Sep 23-28	286	$139	$40K	Moderate
Nutcracker Market	Nov 8-16	234	$139	$33K	Moderate
CTP/MD Anderson	Year-round	~7,000	$104-109	~$750K	Stable base (~30% of mix)
TOTAL GROUPS	-	~10,500	Avg ~$115	~$1.25M	~18% of total revenue

2026 Key Event Calendar

Q1 2026

Jan 10-11: Monster Supercross (NRG) - 789 rn @ $85

Feb 26-28: World's Championship BBQ Cookoff

Mar 2-22: Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo (21 days!)

Mar 29: Disney on Ice opens (through Apr 5)

Q2 2026

Apr 5-13: Mecum Auto Auction - 690 rn @ $179

Apr 27 - May 3: Houston First + Clash of Clubs

May 4-7: OTC Conference (don't repeat 2025 miss!)

Jun 14-29: FIFA World Cup - 6 MATCHES!

Q3 2026

Jul 4: FIFA World Cup - Final match at NRG

Aug: Summer slowdown - lean on medical

Sep 7: NFL Season opens (Texans home games)

Sep 23-28: Konami Digital - 286 rn @ $139

Q4 2026

Oct-Dec: NFL Texans home games (8-10 games)

Nov 8-16: Nutcracker Market - 234 rn @ $139

Nov 26: Thanksgiving

Dec: NEED GROUP PUSH - $67K opportunity!

GM Notes & Operational Items

Capital & Maintenance

- Boiler inspection required (every 3 years) - September 2026

- Grease trap repair needed: $15,000++

- Linen pars need increase after Rodeo, before FIFA

Staffing

- Additional security needed during Rodeo and FIFA

- Bar labor increased during Rodeo and FIFA

- Consider temp housekeeping for peak periods

Risks & Uncertainties

- FIFA impact uncertain ("not sure what to expect")

- OTC 2025 was a bust - groups cut room lists in half

- Monster Jam possible mid-year (unconfirmed)

- Hurricane season 2026

HOURP 2026 Budget Dashboard v5

2025 ACTUAL (TTM)

GM BUDGET 2026

APPROVED BUDGET

RECOMMENDED (DASH)

2026 Market Context